Caviar Group
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Caviar Group combines macro research, systematic market tools and portfolio positioning through one integrated framework — built to help investors understand the environment, identify opportunities and act with context.
Caviar Dashboard
See the market through one framework.
Track structural regime, tactical conditions, forward transition risk and portfolio deployment from one integrated market view.
Access the live Dashboard →CAVIAR CYCLE
REGIME MATRIX
HOW TO READ THIS PAGE
Structural = established regime / persistence
Tactical = near-term market condition
Forward = transition risk, not the current regime
Deployment = risk permission earned by the combined evidence
01
Caviar Regime Read
— the answer first; model detail belowSTRUCTURAL · WEEKS / MONTHS
Risk-Off
CONFIRMED89.5 support · 87.6 trend
Structural memory remains Risk-Off, confirmed with 89.5 support above its 87.6 handoff trend. Stagflation / Inflation Shock is the strongest challenger at 80.4, leaving a +9.1 support advantage and 0/2 flip progress. The model has not escalated into Credit Deterioration or Credit Stress.
TACTICAL · DAYS / WEEKS
Risk-Off
EMERGING · STRENGTHENINGTrajectory −11.4 · 72.3 conf
The two-run Goldilocks Watch / Tactical Growth Repair has reversed into the Risk-Off tactical family. This is the first run of the new expression: trajectory is −11.4 (mild deterioration), with confidence 72.3 and rising fast support 48.3. The family switch captures the growth and momentum rollover, not a credit-stress event.
FORWARD · TRANSITION RISK
Reflation / Cyclical Expansion
FORWARD HEURISTIC · DIFFERENT HORIZON46.5% roadmap weight
The memory-aware forward roadmap still favors Reflation / Cyclical Expansion (46.5%), with Stagflation (13.7%) next. The independent Growth / Inflation prior also favors Reflation (45.0%). These forward-facing heuristic weights do not override the current 4/4 Risk-Off stack or permit higher exposure.
DEPLOYMENT · PORTFOLIO POSTURE
0–4% Live Band
REDRisk score 0 / 100
All 4/4 layers now confirm the Risk-Off parent family. The macro overlay is RED (0/100). The model reduces the raw permissible band to 0–24% and memory-adjusted live permission to 0–4%. The last historical saved run records 24%; that is not today’s live authorization. Credit remains CONFIRMING / HEALTHY, but price, growth, momentum, volatility and the dollar cap risk.
TACTICAL PERSISTENCE
Risk-Off · EMERGING / STRENGTHENING
STREAK
1 RUN
FAST SUPPORT
48.3 / 100
SUPPORT TREND
RISING · 3/5
Fast tactical confirmation: The short-lived Goldilocks Watch sequence has transitioned back to Risk-Off (first run). Fast support is 48.3 (+9.8); trajectory −11.4, confidence 72.3. All four stack layers now confirm the Risk-Off family. Structural memory remains Risk-Off while authoritative credit remains healthy.
MARKET HEALTHCross-asset conditions
−26.7
DETERIORATINGRisk-Off
−100 · Risk-off0 · Neutral+100 · Risk-on
Market participation10D impulse: −30.0
26.7% positive20.0% neutral53.3% negative
Negative participation exceeds positive by 26.6 pts; the 10-day health impulse is −30.0 and cross-asset conditions are Risk-Off / deteriorating.
RISK APPETITEInvestor sentiment
35.6 / 100
FEARInstitutional neutral · retail fearful
0 · Fear50 · Neutral100 · Greed
Who is more cautious?Retail vs institutional
RETAIL
24.2
INSTITUTIONAL
43.2
Retail is in Fear (24.2), while institutions remain Neutral (43.2); retail trails institutional appetite by 19.0 pts. Scores transcribed from the supplied October 30 component table, not stale Pine export.
DESK INTERPRETATION
10/30 DESK READ: The full regime stack has returned to 4/4 FAMILY CONFIRMED · Risk-Off as growth and momentum sell off into renewed volatility. QQQ −3.50%, SPY −1.45% and MTUM −3.99% are below their 13MAs, while VIX +12.31% is elevated above trend. Small caps remain +1.03% above short-term trend, and equal-weight relative breadth persists (RSP:SPY +2.39%), but today's absolute advance/decline reading slipped to 226 advancing / 276 declining (45.0%). Healthcare, utilities, staples and low-volatility exposures retain relative defensive leadership. The trajectory declined to −11.4 with −43.6 one-day impulse and the tactical regime reverted to Risk-Off after two Goldilocks Watch runs. Credit remains CONFIRMING / HEALTHY despite weaker ETF-relative measures: HY OAS 326 bp (+12 bp 1D), 3/4 spread buckets weak, but neither the deterioration nor severe stress gate is met. Dollar pressure persists. The macro risk overlay is RED (0/100); raw cap 0–24% and current memory-adjusted permission 0–4%, versus the 24% recorded in the last saved history entry.
Why all four layers agree: Manual thesis Defensive Broadening, macro Risk-Off (92.0 confidence), RRG Risk-Off (87.2) and trajectory Risk-Off (72.3) all belong to the Risk-Off family. This is 4/4 family confirmation, not exact expression identity. Credit health is still confirmed; the regime is base Risk-Off, not Credit Stress.
02
Risk / Deployment
— what the evidence currently permitsMANUAL THESIS
40–65%
PASTED MACRO
35–60%
ACTIVE ROUTE
35–60%
RRG LEADERSHIP
35–60%
MACRO RISK OVERLAY
0–35%
RAW FINAL CAP
0–24%
MEMORY-ADJUSTED LIVE
0–4%
Current live memory-adjusted permission: 0–4%; last saved historical target: 24%. The RED overlay has a 0–35% cap; the stack’s Risk-Off route and negative trajectory reduce raw permission to 0–24%. The unsaved/current sizing calculation is more restrictive than the prior saved position.
RISK CAPS
- VIX +12.31% above 13MA and above intermediate trend
- SPY −1.45%, QQQ −3.50%, MTUM −3.99% vs 13MA; momentum reset 1/10
- Dollar UUP +0.05% above 13MA and above 50MA
- Relative growth/semiconductor leadership below 13MA
- Trajectory mildly deteriorating (−11.4); one-day impulse −43.6
RISK SUPPORTS
- Authoritative combined credit CONFIRMING / HEALTHY; stress gates remain off
- HY rate-adjusted proxy still healthy; HY OAS 326 bp, direct spread signal mixed
- IWM +1.03% above 13MA; RSP, IWM and IWC relative breadth still strong
- Healthcare, utilities, low volatility, duration and materials retain leading rotation
0
RISK SCORE / 100
Last saved: 24% · Live: 0–4%
The risk score has returned to 0/100 with a 4/4 Risk-Off family confirmation. Absolute growth/momentum price weakness and higher volatility now outweigh relative broadening and still-healthy authoritative credit. The live memory-adjusted band is 0–4%, versus 24% on the last saved history entry; the saved figure is not current live sizing permission.
03
Current Leadership Matrix
— what the market is actually doingThe October 30 RRG shows XLV, SPLV, XLU, XLB, XLRE, XLI, IWM, IEF and TLT in Leading/Northeast. Staples, energy, financials and dividends remain Leading but rotate Southeast as momentum fades. QQQ, XLK, SMH and MTUM are Lagging/Northwest: momentum is improving within a weak relative quadrant, not confirming broad growth leadership. XLC is Lagging/Southwest; IGV is Weakening/Southwest. Aggregate RRG expression: Risk-Off.
RRG LEADERSHIP MAP
Core market expressions · seven most recent rotation points
Leading
Improving
Weakening
Lagging
Seven-point tails through 10/30. Defensive healthcare, utilities, low volatility, duration, materials and small caps are leading. XLE/XOP and staples stay Leading but Southeast. QQQ, XLK and SMH are Lagging/Northwest; IGV and XLC remain Southwest. SPY is the benchmark and excluded from plotted paths.
04
Sector Market State & Confirmation
— what is working and whether leadership is broadSTRUCTURAL
Risk-Off
TACTICAL
Risk-Off
FORWARD
Reflation / Cyclical Expansion
DEPLOYMENT
0–4%
CORE SECTOR MAP
All 11 major sectors · equal-weight ETFs serve as confirmation partners
| Primary | Sector / Index | Market State | Equal-Weight Pair | Double Confirmation |
|---|
Core map: Risk-Off leadership is concentrated in healthcare, utilities, real estate, low volatility and staples. XLV, XLU, XLB and XLI are Leading/Northeast, while technology and communications remain Lagging. Sector pairs are displayed exactly as assessed in the 10/30 tear sheet.
SECONDARY MARKET / STYLE LENSES
Indexes, factors, industries and duration sleeves · descriptive market state
| Primary | Market / Style Sleeve | Market State | Pair / Confirmation |
|---|
Sector and style classifications come from the 10/30 tear sheet. The core sector table includes all 11 major sectors, with 27 secondary lenses. Equal-weight ETFs are confirmation partners, not separate sector primaries.
05
Transition / Scenario Matrix
— base / bull / bear pathsBULL UPGRADE
Clean Goldilocks / broader Risk-On — Conditional
CONFIRMATION
Relative credit HYG:IEF/HYG:LQD regain 13MA while direct HY/OAS remains healthy; dollar headwind cools and QQQ/SMH/XLK relative leadership reclaims trend.
INVALIDATION
Volatility and technology leadership fail again or authoritative credit deteriorates.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Increase deployment only after sustained price/breadth repair and a fresh model reassessment.
BASE CASE
Defensive Slowdown / Risk-Off Watch — Highest current evidence
CONFIRMATION
4/4 Risk-Off family agreement persists, VIX stays elevated, growth/MTUM fail to reclaim trend and selective defensives retain leadership.
INVALIDATION
QQQ/MTUM recover above trend with VIX contraction and relative credit/dollar improvement.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Protect capital, reduce growth/beta exposure, and follow current 0–4% memory-adjusted permission rather than the prior 24% saved allocation.
BEAR FAILURE
Risk-Off deterioration / wider liquidation — Conditional
CONFIRMATION
Relative credit deteriorates along with authoritative HY/OAS evidence; IWM/IWC/RSP relative breadth rolls below trend while VIX expands.
INVALIDATION
Price and volatility repair persists; rate-adjusted HY and OAS stay healthy, breadth remains constructive.
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATION
Hold lower-band risk and cash flexibility; do not label systemic credit stress without its materiality gate.
UPGRADE TRIGGERS
- HYG:IEF / HYG:LQD reclaim 13MA with healthy authoritative credit
- UUP moves below 13MA or dollar pressure stalls
- QQQ:SPY, SMH:SPY and XLK:SPY regain 13MA trend
- SPY/QQQ/MTUM price recovers as VIX falls below 13MA
DOWNGRADE TRIGGERS
- Volatility persists above trend while SPY/QQQ/MTUM fail recovery
- IWM/IWC/RSP relative breadth rolls under 13MA
- Authoritative HY/OAS credit deterioration becomes material
- Dollar strength intensifies alongside further relative growth weakness
06 Regime State Matrix — the full-stack read, layer by layer VIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Layer | Current State | Strength / Score | Trend | Confirmation | Interpretation |
|---|
07 Market Confirmation Heatmap — distance from 13MA, by category VIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Variable | Dist. from 13MA | 1D Δ | 3D Δ | 5D Δ | State |
|---|
Distances and one-, three- and five-day changes are sourced from the October 30 trajectory table, displayed to two decimals. Growth and momentum deteriorate and VIX re-expands; relative credit is soft, while the authoritative HY/OAS credit state remains confirming / healthy.
08 Growth / Inflation Regimes — separate forward macro prior VIEW MODEL DETAIL
GOLDILOCKS
15.4%
Disinflationary Expansion
REFLATION
45.0%
Cyclical Expansion
STAGFLATION
29.5%
Inflation Shock
RISK-OFF
10.1%
Defensive / Growth Slowdown
Independent Growth / Inflation: Reflation 45.0%, Stagflation 29.5%, Goldilocks 15.4% and Risk-Off 10.1%. The memory-aware roadmap separately assigns Reflation 46.5%. Both are forward heuristics and do not override current 4/4 Risk-Off confirmation.
09 Memory Regime Trend — Beluga Overlay — regime trend flip vs. structural handoff VIEW MODEL DETAIL
CONFIRMED MEMORY REGIME
RegimeRisk-Off
Memory Support89.5
Handoff Trend87.6
Dominance StateCONFIRMED
Beluga Adaptive Pivot70.3
Beluga TrendBULLISH
Beluga Momentum+8.2
Last Beluga FlipBULLISH
Last Flip Date2026-10-12
STRONGEST CHALLENGER
RegimeStagflation / Inflation Shock
Challenger Support80.4
Support SpreadIncumbent +9.1
Saved Flip Progress0/2
Saved StatusCONFIRMED
Saved regime: Risk-Off 89.5 support above 87.6 handoff trend; Stagflation challenger 80.4, spread +9.1, flip progress 0/2. The live preview remains unsaved.
10 Memory Support Leaderboard — saved-run persistence across regimes VIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Regime | Support | Handoff Trend | State | Beluga Pivot | Momentum | Beluga Trend | Confirmed |
|---|
11 Forward Regime Matrix — transition probability vs. current evidence VIEW MODEL DETAIL
| Regime | Forward Prob. | Current Evid. | Memory Prior | Transition Mom. | Macro Impulse | Raw Score | Direction |
|---|
Roadmap weights are heuristic transition weights, not return probabilities. Reflation leads at 46.5%, Stagflation at 13.7%, and Risk-Off at 9.9%. Current 4/4 Risk-Off confirmation is separate.
12 Regime Confirmation Stack — 4/4 family confirmation; stack majority route VIEW MODEL DETAIL
MANUAL THESIS
Defensive Broadening
100.0
CONFIRMS
MACRO VARIABLES
Risk-Off
92.0
CONFIRMS
RRG DOUBLE-CONFIRMATION
Risk-Off
87.2
CONFIRMS
MACRO TRAJECTORY
Risk-Off
72.3
CONFIRMS
Stack result: 4/4 FAMILY CONFIRMED — Risk-Off · Stack majority route
Manual Defensive Broadening belongs to Risk-Off family; Macro, RRG and Trajectory explicitly vote Risk-Off. Credit severity remains healthy—not an upgraded Credit Stress classification.
13 Regime History Strip — 10 saved history entries through 10/30; memory unchanged VIEW MODEL DETAIL
The October 30 saved history records 24% risk assets and 76% modeled cash; the current calculated memory-adjusted live band is 0–4%. This dashboard does not modify model memory.
Caviar Regime Dashboard · 2026-10-30 · Regime Engine V24.5.10 · Structural and tactical Risk-Off with 4/4 family confirmation; absolute HY/OAS credit remains CONFIRMING / HEALTHY, not Credit Stress. Market Health and sentiment are transcribed from user screenshots, not stale Pine exports. Historical model memory was not modified.
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